Posts Tagged ‘Alternative Energy’

PV Crystalox Solar – I’m In

Now it’s no news to anyone who has followed us on our little journey that we’ve a penchant for a highly speculative buy. Add a green energy aspect to the mix and it’s like a waving a pizza, at mid-70′s Elvis (too soon?).

So, when PV Crystalox Solar plunged to below 10 pence a share late last year, we placed it on the radar.

When it fell below five pence it was like adding another layer of cheese, there seemed no way I couldn’t take a little speculative slice (well three actually: at 4.4, then 5.15 and 5.4 pence to be exact).

 

Chart courtesy of SharePrice.co.uk

 

Now I didn’t dive in here willy nilly – God (and Elvis) forbid! We’ve been in and out of a healthy PV Crystalox Solar in the past, having bought in and sold out in 2010 — when it was trading in the 50 pence range. So we’d done our homework. We just needed to get current. And for current we looked no further than the latest news out of PVCS, it’s Interim Management Statement.

When an Interim Management Statement is brought forward and begins, “In light of the ongoing difficult market conditions in the solar industry” (and the company in question is in the solar industry) you quickly get the feeling that lean times are ahead.

In what was a statement awash with negatives, I’ll pick out a handful of low-lights:

The anticipated recovery in PV end-market demand stimulated by lower module prices has been weaker than expected in the second half of 2011.

Since our interim results statement wafer prices on the spot market have decreased by more than 20%, meaning that the overall decline since April is greater than 50%.

…customers have reduced production in response to the weak market conditions and accordingly the Group now expects full year shipment volumes to be in the range 360-390MW…….below the 400-450MW indicated at the time of our interim results on 18 August 2011.

Okay, that’s a cocktail of negatives, and the market dealt with the them as expected; halving the share price.

But at least we’re dealing with a board that’s willing to quickly make the tough decisions to minimise any unnecessary outflow of cash in the short term. To ensure PV Crystalox Solar lives to trade another day:

In light of these market conditions the Board has resolved to take appropriate actions to manage the business through these difficult times and to conserve the Group’s cash. In the short term the Group intends to reduce production output at its UK ingot and German wafer operations. The Board also intends to suspend production temporarily at its polysilicon facility in Bitterfeld, Germany. Regrettably these actions will lead to significant job losses in the UK and short time working in Germany. In addition the Group will continue to have discussions with its suppliers in order to reduce costs and will continue to seek further methods of achieving greater efficiencies within the Group’s operations.

Harsh measures and although the board believes that: “the medium-term outlook for solar installations remains positive“, there’s still China out there who’s doing what PVCS does but in China — with all the cost advantages that are inherent with production in that neck of the woods.

So why invest?

Now I know there’s a hell of long road back for PV Crystalox Solar and time will tell if it’s even navigable. So let’s be honest here, the price is a fairly big factor. (the day after I bought, PVCS shot up over 20%, not even a pence, a drop in the ocean a few years back) but when you buy in at exceptionally low prices even small increases can result in big paper profits.

Anything that’s traded at a multiple of 40 times where it’s currently at, has limited debt and a comparatively healthy cash position (albeit, probably diminishing by the day) in my opinion (and this my amateur opinion and in no way should be construed as investment advice), is worth a punt.

Oh, and I love the green energy aspect, always have.

Cue harp music punctuated by dolphin noises and Sumatran birdsong: and part of me longs to believe that one day all energy will be green and that there’ll be room for lots of players in the solar industry from all parts of the world — even Europe. Is that too much to ask?

Sale – Ceramic Fuel Cells

Another day, another sale.

What can I say, we’re trading the Hades out of our little portfolio recently in the hopes of finding some short term gains in sectors new.

This time it’s our holding of Ceramic Fuel Cells (CFU.L) that’s been given the chop. We sold off 5,546 shares at 10.50 pence a share late last week after buying in for 8.84 pence a share back in June 2009. Not the sort of returns that are going to make us rich but it’s better than bank interest.

Now it’s not that Ceramic Fuel Cells had failed to deliver, it’s just that patience has never been a strong suit and CFU has been trading in a range for as long as I can remember.

Long term I love their product and on a whisper of good news to come I’ll be happy to re-visit our alternative-energy producing, Aussie battlers, but short term I’ve got an itch for speculative returns that’s just got be scratched.

But more on that soon…

Sale – Clipper Windpower

Late last week, following our sad farewell to Renesola, we sold off our final cache of another Investor Trader stalwart, Clipper Windpower.

The once proud Clipper Windpower whose price previously stormed its way toward ten quid recently became a takeover target for UTC and not for the first time if memory serves me correct.

Anyway, to cut a long story short, the offer came in at 65 pence a share and not being one to hang a round for the last rites, we sold out at 64.15 pence to put our money to work elsewhere. At the time of the deal 65 pence was at a premium so no harm no foul.

We were averaged in at £ 1.0495 so we took a bit of a hit this time round, but a sale 13 months ago at £1.77 saw us pretty much break even overall in our dealings with Clipper over the journey.

Purchase – PV Crystalox Solar

So with my Renesola adventures due to come to an end in the coming weeks, the first of my four purchases this week, will come as a no-brainer to those who’ve followed Investor Trader over the journey.

PV Crystalox Solar is a, yep, you guessed it, solar energy company. Though it lacks the Chinese connection it’s still a major player in Asia (especially Japan). We purchased 1,719 shares at 57.21 pence a share.

To quote from the tin:

With 25 years (28 now) in solar technology development, PV Crystalox Solar is a leading manufacturer of multicrystalline silicon ingots and wafers, the key component in solar power systems.

Its customers, the world’s leading solar cell producers, combine these wafers into solar modules to harness the clean, silent and renewable power from the sun.

From a purely chartist point of view I quite like our entry point. I’m hoping the dips in May and October of this year constitute a double bottom.

After a pretty ordinary 2009 which saw PVCS earnings per share drop from 21 pence to a little over 6 pence, the company is looking a lot healthier as production is ramped at their poly-silicon plant in Germany and production costs continue to drop.

On the flip side, prices too, continue to drop. But as prices drop we edge ever closer to “grid parity” and the potential “solar rush” the industry would no doubt enjoy when that day comes.

I dare say a lot of UK Renesola holders who want to keep their investments on this side of the pond will be taking a closer look at PVCS.L in the coming weeks. And despite everything fundamental and what the charts say, my gut just tells me that investing in solar long term can’t be a bad thing!

Thanks again for dropping by and remember to pay Kiva a visit and help a third world entrepreneur get up and running.

Clipper, Copenhagen and Christmas

Following on from my semi-forced uptake of Lloyds earlier in the month, this week I received another timely email from my broker informing me of a Tender Offer whereby I could part with some or all of my holding of Clipper Windpower at the slightly higher than current market price of 180 pence per share. As I type we’re trading in the range of 164 and 167 pence, so to be honest, the offer – though far from tender – is looking better by the minute.

I had high hopes for my Clipper Windpower shares this week on the back of proceedings in Copenhagen. I thought all things with even an iota of a green hue, may fly on the back of ground-breaking developments at the Climate Pact talks. I should have known better. Though the big boys are still in their Boeings jetting into the wintry north of Europe – don’t slip on the irony – my understanding is there hasn’t been too much to get excited about thus far in Copenhagen. Big words, big deal!

Anyway, I digress. Maybe there’ll be some groundbreaking news just around the corner and past that patch of mud where a glacier lay for centuries. I hope so, more so for the sake of the planet than for any short term stock market gain. Though massive gains on the alternative energy markets coinciding with the world turning green is the stuff of dreams for this closet tree-hugger.

So it looks like I’ve been forced back into the market again, this time to take up a tender offer, if only to buy straight back in for a short term buck or two. There’s worse positions to be in. I’ve gotten until the 6th January 2010 to make up my mind at least, so we’ll see what unravels.

Thanks again for dropping by this year and following my little online investment journey. I wish you the finest of holiday seasons and look forward to your company again in 2010.

Oh, and if you’re having a hard time conjuring up the perfect gift to give to a loved one, why not head over to Kiva and give the gift of a future to a third world entrepreneur. You’ll feel good, they’ll feel good and you’ll be helping others. Isn’t that what Christmas is all about!


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Disclaimer: Investor Trader is the blog of a single, personal investor. The owner of this blog is not a citizen of the United Kingdom nor is he based in the United Kingdom and the blog is not hosted in the United Kingdom. The owner has never received any form of compensation for providing investment recommendations and has never in the past been employed in any capacity where he has provided investment recommendations. Investor Trader does not make investment recommendations and no information displayed on its pages should be considered as investment advice. Nothing on Investor Trader should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investments. All trades are first reported on Investor Trader at least a day or two after the fact (but more often a week or two), never live. Investor Trader is here to journal my attempts to make a few quid from the markets and possibly to entertain you a little into the bargain. Please, please, please, do your own piles of research and if you want good investment advice go out and find someone who does this sort of thing for a living (i.e. not me). Most of my investment decisions are based on gut feelings, hearsay, unfounded rumour and whether or not I like the cut of a company logo. You've been warned!
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