Posts Tagged ‘Energy Sector’

Powering India – OPG Power Ventures

Following a financial clemin of a year like 2011, it’s good to take a little time out to define at least one non-negotiable. A given. Something you can hang your hat on moving forward.

Here’s a starter for ten. India will consume all of the energy it produces in 2012. India’s energy gap is not breaking news. For a country with a population only second to China’s – 1,170 billion compared to China’s 1,338 billion in 2010 – and an enviable recent record of economic growth, India’s energy consumption figures compared to that of its northern neighbour, provide a glimpse of the chasm that exists between the two countries in terms of energy infrastructure.

To illustrate this point, take a look at the graph below which displays Energy Use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) for the period of 1971 to 2009 – data supplied by the International Energy Agency. Notice the divergence between the Chinese and Indian lines from 2002 through 2009.

Anyway, India knows all about its energy shortcomings and obviously they are working towards bridging the supply-demand gap moving forward. And that’s where we as investors can join the party.

Followers of Investor Trader may recall a share that we enjoyed a brief fling with back in 2010: OPG Power Ventures (OPG.L). Here was our reasoning at the time. We jumped in at 66 pence in August and out at 68 pence in November. We now think the time is right to re-visit OPG Power Ventures and here’s a few reasons why.

For the six months ended 30th September 2011, OPG’s revenue has risen 166% to £23.85m, whilst EBITDA has increased 34% to £6.34m. Cash and cash equivalents sit at a very healthy £66.84m. Check out OPG’s half year results at Interactive Investor for the whole picture.

Just this week, there’s been a little top-up from a director (I do mean little) – but it’s never a bad sign. And no surprise here, the share price sits at 35 pence – a third of the £1+ it began 2011 at.

Since November 2010 OPG has gone on to add that 77MW of capacity we touched on in our reasons to buy back in 2010, taking total annual capacity to 113MW. On the subject of capacity there’s more to come; much, much more. 552MW of fully-funded capacity in fact and all by the shank of 2013.

And looking further forward to 2015, OPG Power’s Chairman, Arvind Gupta, has a target capacity of 1,250MW in sight.

So with an Indian government hell bent on upping local energy production (with policies and tariffs in place to encourage just that) and an aggressive growth campaign taking shape, we think the time is right to take a closer look at OPG Power Ventures heading into 2012. Expect an OPG addition to our portfolio not too far down the track.

For those of you who’d like to dig a little deeper into OPG, here’s some recent articles from Stock Market Wire and Investors Chronicle.

Coming up in part two of Powering India we’ll take a closer look at another AIM-listed Indian energy company, with a grandiose vision and an environmental edge.

Until then, thanks for dropping by. I wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2012.

Purchase – Alecto Energy

The fundamental change in our portfolio mix continues.

With the recent sale of all our Renesola, Clipper Windpower and OPG Power Ventures holdings and what for us is a fairly heavy (in terms of portfolio percentage) investment in Berkeley Mineral Resources, we’ve taken a leap into more speculative mineral waters. Ouch! Sorry, do pardon the pun.

Well, that’s a subjective call I guess. What’s speculative to some is rock solid to others. Many would argue that the labels: solar (Renesola), wind-power (Clipper) and India (OPG) in terms of investment have speculation written all over them. My personal investment philosophy though sees no great risk involved long term in alternative energy. And India’s power needs are only going in one direction as we move forward.

But, I digress. Our latest purchase is a ton of Alecto Energy, well 44,272 shares to be exact, that we picked up for 3.75 pence a share last Thursday for a total outlay before costs of £1,660.20.

It may be just me but when I take up penny shares in lots of tens of thousands, the potential to double, triple or even quadruple my initial investment in a timely manner seems all the more realistic.

To back up this theory, check out the one month charts for Herencia (1.28 to 2.72 pence), Red Rock Resources (6.18 to 12.38 pence) and Victoria Oil and Gas (3.11 to 6.70 pence). Ahhh foresight, what a wonderful gift. Unfortunately it’s one I don’t possess. Our portfolio contains none of these.

Now I know a million and one investors would argue that, that is utter nonsense and a ten quid share has the same likelihood – ceterus parabus – of doubling as a ten pence share. And they’re probably right. But to my warped way of thinking, I see more chance of my 3 pence shares trading at a quid than I do of any 10 quid shares trading at £330.

Damned digression, now, where was I? That’s right, Alecto Energy. Our reasons? Basically, in the last month Alecto has been awarded three gold and copper mining and two uranium mining licenses in the Mauritanide mobile belt of Mauritania and there’s the possibility of more good news on the horizon.

As always do a ton of your own homework and take none of the above as investment advice. It isn’t. It is simply the warped ramblings of an amateur investor.

Thanks again for stopping by. If you’re after a sure thing, head on over to Kiva and help a third world entrepreneur help themselves.

Sale – OPG Power Ventures

It’s been a busy fortnight and it ain’t over yet. On Tuesday we sold off our entire holding of OPG Power Ventures for 68 pence a share after buying in at 66 pence a share in April. With the meagre profit, we covered our dealing costs.

Mid to long term I have no doubt that the imbalance in supply and demand of Indian electricity will see OPG Power Ventures forge ahead but for the time being at least we have a couple of other more speculative plays for our coin.

Sometimes investing is like that. You’ve got to shuffle limited funds to where they’ll do best. “Opportunity cost Paul”, my economics lecturer would announce before piffing a duster at my head, “is the basic relationship between choice and scarcity”.

In our case the cash is scarce and the choice is a more speculative, short-term gain. Well, that’s the plan. Time will tell. But more on that early next week. Have a good weekend.

On the Move – Ceramic Fuel Cells

With finals due out in the next week, Ceramic Fuel Cells (CFU.L) has spurted again, pushing north 16% on the day as I type.

There’s been a nice upturn in press too extolling the virtues of fuel cells and the Ceramic Fuel Cells product in particular. Here’s a couple from the Guardian and EcoGeneration.

The boards are abuzz and the feeling is that the news will be good. Long term we love Ceramic Fuel Cells, short term things are looking pretty rosy too.

There’s Plenty of Sun in the Sahara

It’s estimated that $555 billion will be needed to realise a planned project to harness the sun that beats down on the Sahara Desert and pipe it to European homes, according to sources from Siemens AG quoted in an article on Bloomberg.com.

Some big players such as Siemens AG and Munich Re – amongst others – will meet today in Munich to sign a memorandum of understanding to proceed with the ambitious project, that if implemented, could supply up to 15% of Europe’s electricity needs my the middle of the century.

Obviously there are any number of potential pitfalls and problems that may arise before we see a single watt of electricity hitting Continental Europe, but the very fact that plans are being made, the ball is rolling and interest is being shown from some unlikely sources demonstrates the shift in attitude towards the viability of alternative energy.

Read the article in full here.


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Disclaimer: Investor Trader is the blog of a single, personal investor. The owner of this blog is not a citizen of the United Kingdom nor is he based in the United Kingdom and the blog is not hosted in the United Kingdom. The owner has never received any form of compensation for providing investment recommendations and has never in the past been employed in any capacity where he has provided investment recommendations. Investor Trader does not make investment recommendations and no information displayed on its pages should be considered as investment advice. Nothing on Investor Trader should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investments. All trades are first reported on Investor Trader at least a day or two after the fact (but more often a week or two), never live. Investor Trader is here to journal my attempts to make a few quid from the markets and possibly to entertain you a little into the bargain. Please, please, please, do your own piles of research and if you want good investment advice go out and find someone who does this sort of thing for a living (i.e. not me). Most of my investment decisions are based on gut feelings, hearsay, unfounded rumour and whether or not I like the cut of a company logo. You've been warned!
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