Posts Tagged ‘Investing Strategy’

DOW follows FTSE – A New Web Site

Now just because there’s been little sign of life at Investor Trader over the past few weeks, doesn’t mean we haven’t been busy little beavers behind the scenes working on other financey-type web gadgets.

Just as AIM Soirée answered those burning questions about who’s discussing what in the world of AIM listed shares, recently we’ve moved our focus to topics new.

Oh yes, ladies and gentlemen, drumroll please, may I introduce our latest offering to the Interweb: DOW follows FTSE.

Now I’m not going to spew out a whole new spiel about what happens at DOW follows FTSE. Needless to say the title’s a bit of a giveaway and a quick click to the site will reveal all. But for the impatient, the basic premise in a sentence: If the FTSE finishes up or down on any given day, what are the chances the DOW will do the same?

We’ve got daily DOW and FTSE data dating back to 1984 and the results might just surprise. Need more? How about in 2011 (to date) the closing direction of the DOW and FTSE matched 76% of the time.

So, on a final note, I just wanted to take this opportunity to thank everyone who dropped by Investor Trader in 2011. Yes, it may be true that our portfolio more than halved in value in 2011, but luckily I’m an optimist who’s very heavily invested in a drastically under-valued (IMHO) Berkeley Mineral Resources. So seasons greetings to all and may 2012 see your portfolios bathe in a blue-green ocean of upward-pointing arrows.

Euro Resolution and Bargain Hunting

Well, it’s a fact. There is now no denying it. I am a fair-weather blogger.  Since the markets began their free-fall, I’ve barely let out a whimper. So again, allow to me apologise.

Now I’m not the only one. I’ve noticed quite a few other financial bloggers have fallen off the radar a little since this whole Euro mess kicked off. What can I say, it’s a lot easier to put pen to paper when you’re making a little coin into the bargain.

So what have I been up to? I had taken refuge in gold – riding that lovely precious medal from a little over $1,500 USD an ounce to up over $1,900 and then way back down to $1,600. All that in the space of mere months. It’s not a place for the financial faint-of-heart.

Now I could never be branded risk averse but volatility like that had me taking cover…for the time being. If gold re-visits $1,400 (and who’s to say it won’t) I may jump back in, but for the time being it all feels a little too much like flipping a coin.

In fact it seems as if the play-book for market movement has been thrown out the window of late.

Obviously UK shares are down across the board almost without exception. But there seems to be some inordinately gloomy valuations across many of the AIM shares I’m tracking. Are these valuations now realistic? Have the goal-posts shifted for good? Or will we look back at this period and kick ourselves for not going on a bit of a spending spree? The optimist in me says it’s time to buy but there’s been a growing level of pessimism seeping into the thought process behind any trading decisions.

It’s harder than ever to hit that buy button despite what appears to be bargains aplenty.

Having said that I’ve gone almost all in on Berkeley Mineral Resources. Our portfolio now features 309,000 of those little bad boys averaged in at 3.69 pence a share.

I’ve had price alerts getting hit almost daily on a number of other AIM shares I’m tracking but to be honest the headlines are about as far as I get into the financial news at the moment.

Maybe it’s time to get serious about bargain hunting. I mean there’s undervalued and ridiculously undervalued right? And when this thing corrects (if a correction is indeed what will happen) it could all happen very quickly.

I’d love to hear your suggestions on anything you think is grossly undervalued and why? What’s on your shopping list? Or are you sitting on your hands until this whole Euro thing plays out?

Thanks again for dropping by.

Cash Burning a Hole In My Pocket

I’ve never been a very patient investor. I love the concept of an ideal entry point to a market, but truth be known, if I’ve been eying a potential buy, I tend to pile in without paying too much attention to short term fluctuations.

I’m usually in for the mid to long term when I buy a share so price fluctuations this week or next neither overly excite nor bother me.

One thing that does bother me – especially when I have a portfolio that’s ticking over like this one has been for the past few months – is money sitting bone idle in a trading account earning a slice under bugger all in interest.

And that’s where we are at now. But not for long. In the coming days I’ll be looking to place probably four buys in the region of £900 per buy to turn that £3,770 in cash into hard working investments.

Keeping in mind my love for alternative energy, emerging markets and speculative plays, any ideas on potential buys from you guys are most welcome!

Invest with Objectives

When I began trading – and to a degree even now if I’m honest – one of the biggest problems I faced, was deciding when to get out of a position.

Getting in was easy. I began investing back in the dot com boom days of the late 90′s, when I worked for an investor-focused, IT startup in London. I got in as soon as I had the cash. Usually pay day.

Sometimes I doubled or tripled my cash, sometimes I got burnt, but all in all, things were good then – if a little crazy – and there were more wins than loses.

It was usually a case of bailing on an equity when a better option came along or someone in the office gave me the whisper. Sometimes growth was just too quick to be sustainable, so I jumped ship before the inevitable reversal. That felt good. There wasn’t a lot of thought to my trading back then though and if you had of asked me if I had a trade objective, I probably would have replied, “yeah, to make lots of money”. I wasn’t a good investor, I was a very average investor in a ridiculously bullish market. It was hard to fail, but that all changed.

Now I wouldn’t say that I’m a good investor yet, I’m still an average investor but I’m better read and with a lot more experience. And that experience has taught me to trade with an objective. When I enter a trade now I tend to have two defined prices where I’ll be getting out. A stop loss, where enough is enough and it’s time to poke my tail between my legs and sniff for greener pastures and a target price which usually equates to a multiple of my trading price, as I tend to put my money into more volatile, speculative equities. I ain’t gonna die wondering!

If you can do it, trading with an objective takes a lot of the guesswork out of investing. Sure you’re going to miss out on some gains by selling too early or too late but if you’re confident in your abilities you should win more than you lose. Those rules then give your trading structure and there’s nothing stopping you getting back into an equity when the time is right.

Now if only I could practice what I preach.

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Disclaimer: Investor Trader is the blog of a single, personal investor. The owner of this blog is not a citizen of the United Kingdom nor is he based in the United Kingdom and the blog is not hosted in the United Kingdom. The owner has never received any form of compensation for providing investment recommendations and has never in the past been employed in any capacity where he has provided investment recommendations. Investor Trader does not make investment recommendations and no information displayed on its pages should be considered as investment advice. Nothing on Investor Trader should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investments. All trades are first reported on Investor Trader at least a day or two after the fact (but more often a week or two), never live. Investor Trader is here to journal my attempts to make a few quid from the markets and possibly to entertain you a little into the bargain. Please, please, please, do your own piles of research and if you want good investment advice go out and find someone who does this sort of thing for a living (i.e. not me). Most of my investment decisions are based on gut feelings, hearsay, unfounded rumour and whether or not I like the cut of a company logo. You've been warned!
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