Posts Tagged ‘Solar Power’

PV Crystalox Solar – I’m In

Now it’s no news to anyone who has followed us on our little journey that we’ve a penchant for a highly speculative buy. Add a green energy aspect to the mix and it’s like a waving a pizza, at mid-70′s Elvis (too soon?).

So, when PV Crystalox Solar plunged to below 10 pence a share late last year, we placed it on the radar.

When it fell below five pence it was like adding another layer of cheese, there seemed no way I couldn’t take a little speculative slice (well three actually: at 4.4, then 5.15 and 5.4 pence to be exact).

 

Chart courtesy of SharePrice.co.uk

 

Now I didn’t dive in here willy nilly – God (and Elvis) forbid! We’ve been in and out of a healthy PV Crystalox Solar in the past, having bought in and sold out in 2010 — when it was trading in the 50 pence range. So we’d done our homework. We just needed to get current. And for current we looked no further than the latest news out of PVCS, it’s Interim Management Statement.

When an Interim Management Statement is brought forward and begins, “In light of the ongoing difficult market conditions in the solar industry” (and the company in question is in the solar industry) you quickly get the feeling that lean times are ahead.

In what was a statement awash with negatives, I’ll pick out a handful of low-lights:

The anticipated recovery in PV end-market demand stimulated by lower module prices has been weaker than expected in the second half of 2011.

Since our interim results statement wafer prices on the spot market have decreased by more than 20%, meaning that the overall decline since April is greater than 50%.

…customers have reduced production in response to the weak market conditions and accordingly the Group now expects full year shipment volumes to be in the range 360-390MW…….below the 400-450MW indicated at the time of our interim results on 18 August 2011.

Okay, that’s a cocktail of negatives, and the market dealt with the them as expected; halving the share price.

But at least we’re dealing with a board that’s willing to quickly make the tough decisions to minimise any unnecessary outflow of cash in the short term. To ensure PV Crystalox Solar lives to trade another day:

In light of these market conditions the Board has resolved to take appropriate actions to manage the business through these difficult times and to conserve the Group’s cash. In the short term the Group intends to reduce production output at its UK ingot and German wafer operations. The Board also intends to suspend production temporarily at its polysilicon facility in Bitterfeld, Germany. Regrettably these actions will lead to significant job losses in the UK and short time working in Germany. In addition the Group will continue to have discussions with its suppliers in order to reduce costs and will continue to seek further methods of achieving greater efficiencies within the Group’s operations.

Harsh measures and although the board believes that: “the medium-term outlook for solar installations remains positive“, there’s still China out there who’s doing what PVCS does but in China — with all the cost advantages that are inherent with production in that neck of the woods.

So why invest?

Now I know there’s a hell of long road back for PV Crystalox Solar and time will tell if it’s even navigable. So let’s be honest here, the price is a fairly big factor. (the day after I bought, PVCS shot up over 20%, not even a pence, a drop in the ocean a few years back) but when you buy in at exceptionally low prices even small increases can result in big paper profits.

Anything that’s traded at a multiple of 40 times where it’s currently at, has limited debt and a comparatively healthy cash position (albeit, probably diminishing by the day) in my opinion (and this my amateur opinion and in no way should be construed as investment advice), is worth a punt.

Oh, and I love the green energy aspect, always have.

Cue harp music punctuated by dolphin noises and Sumatran birdsong: and part of me longs to believe that one day all energy will be green and that there’ll be room for lots of players in the solar industry from all parts of the world — even Europe. Is that too much to ask?

Sale – PV Crystalox Solar

The 30th December 2010 marked a sad day for Investor Trader. Following the sale of our entire holding of PV Crystalox Solar (PVCS.L) it was the first time since we began our little project in April 2009, that our portfolio held no wind or solar energy shares.

Over the journey at different stages a large percentage of our portfolio has been tied up in Renesola. That is until they packed up their AIM listing and took all their toys to the New York Stock Exchange in November. We also held shares in Clipper Windpower until they became a UTC takeover target in November last year.

With the sale of PV Crystalox Solar it was our decision. A case of possibly being able to make our investment penny perform a little better elsewhere.

Here’s why we jumped in with PV Crystalox Solar to begin with. Small Company Share Watch also wrote a bullish piece in their May 2010 issue and those guys rarely get it wrong.

To be honest, we probably didn’t give PV Crystalox Solar the run it deserved. We bought in on 18th October 2010 – 1,719 shares at 57.21 pence a share – and sold out on the 30th December 2010 – 1,719 shares at 51.03 pence a share. We took a loss in the region of a hundred quid before costs.

I find when your portfolio is performing well and travelling with a few strong gainers anything that is sliding – even slightly – comes under scrutiny. When you’re running with a portfolio of over 10 shares there’s constantly two or three that fall into that category. It’s a danger because you can fall into the trap of over-trading.

Here’s the three month chart (courtesy of SharePrice.co.uk) for PV Crystalox Solar which covers the period we held. Interesting to note it’s put on 10% since we left. I hope it does well going forward, I’d love to jump back in and hold a performing PVCS for years to come.

If anyone has any solar or wind power share tips we’d love it if you posted them in the comments box below.

Thanks again for dropping by.

Purchase – PV Crystalox Solar

So with my Renesola adventures due to come to an end in the coming weeks, the first of my four purchases this week, will come as a no-brainer to those who’ve followed Investor Trader over the journey.

PV Crystalox Solar is a, yep, you guessed it, solar energy company. Though it lacks the Chinese connection it’s still a major player in Asia (especially Japan). We purchased 1,719 shares at 57.21 pence a share.

To quote from the tin:

With 25 years (28 now) in solar technology development, PV Crystalox Solar is a leading manufacturer of multicrystalline silicon ingots and wafers, the key component in solar power systems.

Its customers, the world’s leading solar cell producers, combine these wafers into solar modules to harness the clean, silent and renewable power from the sun.

From a purely chartist point of view I quite like our entry point. I’m hoping the dips in May and October of this year constitute a double bottom.

After a pretty ordinary 2009 which saw PVCS earnings per share drop from 21 pence to a little over 6 pence, the company is looking a lot healthier as production is ramped at their poly-silicon plant in Germany and production costs continue to drop.

On the flip side, prices too, continue to drop. But as prices drop we edge ever closer to “grid parity” and the potential “solar rush” the industry would no doubt enjoy when that day comes.

I dare say a lot of UK Renesola holders who want to keep their investments on this side of the pond will be taking a closer look at PVCS.L in the coming weeks. And despite everything fundamental and what the charts say, my gut just tells me that investing in solar long term can’t be a bad thing!

Thanks again for dropping by and remember to pay Kiva a visit and help a third world entrepreneur get up and running.

Buckle Up For a Renesola Ride

It’s been a hair-raising start to 2010 for Renseola – our manufacturer of solar wafers and solar power products – but no-one said investing in China-based alternative energy AIM shares was gonna be easy!

January started with an optimistic bang sending SOLA.L skyrocketing from it’s Christmas break price of 145 pence up to 190 pence in the space of a week. That’s a 23.6% gain! Why? Good question.

That first full week of 2010 trading only bought news of a failed acquisition. Renesola’s plans to purchase Dynamic Green Energy Limited fell through due to a lack of  relevant Government agency approvals.

Despite what I construed to be negative news, the RNS remained upbeat and finished with this optimistic flurry from ReneSola’s Chief Executive Officer, Li Xianshou:

Despite the termination of the Jiawei acquisition, ReneSola’s downstream strategy remains intact and we continue to witness impressive organic growth in our JC Solar cell and module business.

We are still in a strong position to leverage our wafer manufacturing capabilities and deep customer relationships to quickly expand our downstream business. We expect to see significant top-line and bottom-line growth from our downstream business in 2010.

After peaking just shy of the magical £2 level, Renesola has given back most of the gains it made early in January. There’s been a little negative press out of Germany where the  government plans to cut solar power incentives more deeply and sooner than expected but besides that, I put the drop down to the natural ebbs of flows of this volatile firecracker of a share. With results due late Feb, expect more turbulent times to come.

Thanks again for dropping by.

Graph courtesy of Interactive Investor

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ReneSola Results

Earlier today ReneSola announced its third quarter results (for the period ending 30th September 2009) and the future is looking pretty rosy for our vertically integrated Chinese manufacturer of solar power products.

Highlights included:

  • Third quarter net revenues exceeded guidance coming in at US$140.9 million, an increase of 70.6% over second quarter net revenue figures of US$82.6 million.
  • Total solar product shipments in the third quarter were a record 146.9 megawatts (MW), an increase of 71% from 85.9 MW in the second quarter of this year.

Mr. Charles Bai, ReneSola’s Chief Financial Officer had this to say:

“We were pleased to see strong improvements in revenues and shipment volumes during the third quarter as we continue to witness strong customer demand and continue to gain market share globally. We are one quarter away from completely working through our high cost inventories. As such, we expect substantial margin improvements and a return to profitabilityin Q1 2010.”

Check out the results in full at the Renesola web site.

On the back of these results, ReneSola’s price is north to the tune of 10.34% as I type, with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) due to open any minute. It’ll be interesting to gauge US opinion and the effect it has on price in the two and a half hours to London’s close, and of course, in the coming days.

After the downhill ride SOLA holders have endured for the past couple of months it’s nice to see a little optimism returning. I’m certainly feeling justified in topping up our holding at £1.23 a couple of weeks back now. Let’s just hope that the sun is shining on ReneSola and 2 quid is soon again bobbing up on the horizon.


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Disclaimer: Investor Trader is the blog of a single, personal investor. The owner of this blog is not a citizen of the United Kingdom nor is he based in the United Kingdom and the blog is not hosted in the United Kingdom. The owner has never received any form of compensation for providing investment recommendations and has never in the past been employed in any capacity where he has provided investment recommendations. Investor Trader does not make investment recommendations and no information displayed on its pages should be considered as investment advice. Nothing on Investor Trader should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investments. All trades are first reported on Investor Trader at least a day or two after the fact (but more often a week or two), never live. Investor Trader is here to journal my attempts to make a few quid from the markets and possibly to entertain you a little into the bargain. Please, please, please, do your own piles of research and if you want good investment advice go out and find someone who does this sort of thing for a living (i.e. not me). Most of my investment decisions are based on gut feelings, hearsay, unfounded rumour and whether or not I like the cut of a company logo. You've been warned!
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